Ticket sales between the Middle East and America saw a significant decline following the outbreak of the war. This decline was particularly pronounced in flights to and from the Middle East, encompassing not only Israel but also destinations like Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Egypt.
Travelers, often sensitive to security concerns and not fully versed in geopolitics, showed apprehension despite Egypt’s assurances that the war would not hinder tourism growth. The only exception to this trend was the UAE, where ticket sales remained relatively stable, indicating a higher level of trust and confidence in safety among international travelers.
However, the impact of the Israel-Hamas war extended beyond the Middle East, with the global aviation market slowing by 5 percentage points (p.p.) in the three weeks following Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7th. This analysis compared flight bookings to pre-pandemic levels during the three weeks before and after October 7th.
In terms of outbound travel, flight bookings from Middle Eastern countries decreased by 9 p.p. since the war began, while those from the Americas dropped by 10 p.p. Asia Pacific, Europe (including Israel), and Africa each experienced a 2 p.p. decline.
Regarding travel destinations, the growth in bookings to most regions worldwide slowed down, except for Africa, which continued to recover towards 2019 levels. Flight bookings to the Americas decreased by 6 p.p., to Europe by 3 p.p., to Asia Pacific by 1 p.p., and to the Middle East by a significant 26 p.p.
Within the conflict-affected region, Israel suffered the most, with many airlines canceling flights. Since October 7th, flight bookings to Israel plunged by 155 p.p., indicating both a lack of new bookings and a high number of cancellations. Saudi Arabia followed with a 67 p.p. decline, Jordan with a 54 p.p. drop, Lebanon with a 45 p.p. decrease, and Egypt with a 35 p.p. decline. Flight bookings to GCC nations as a whole declined by 25 p.p.
As of October 6th, it was expected that global air travel in the last quarter of the year (Q4) would reach 95% of its 2019 level. However, as of October 27th, the outlook has retreated by 7 p.p. and now stands at 88%. The Middle East’s outlook is even more sobering, falling back by 16 p.p. to 110% from the initial 126% before the war began.
